Fernley, Nevada 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

459
FXUS65 KREV 300903
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
203 AM PDT Sun Mar 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Periods of rain and mountain snow through Tuesday, making for
  difficult travel in and across the Sierra.

* Winds increase Sunday afternoon but peak Monday afternoon,
  impacting aviation and recreational activities.

* Unsettled weather continues late this week before a drier
  weather pattern is favored next weekend and beyond.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Current composite reflectivity shows our next weather maker
already bringing rain to California. As the prefrontal band pushes
through, locations along the Sierra could see light snow showers
early this morning. However, snow arrives in earnest this morning
around 5-6am with snow levels around 5200 ft. Snow levels start to
rise after daybreak, pushing levels above 6500 ft. This will
likely bring rain showers for Sierra communities like Truckee,
South Lake Tahoe, and Incline Village. Showers will be light
through today, with minimal spillover into W NV valleys.

Snow intensity picks up late this evening and continues through
Monday afternoon, with a 12 hour period of snowfall rates between
1 and 2 inches per hour. This will bring impacts to both the
Monday AM and PM commute, especially for Sierra communities. Chain
controls and travel delays are likely; if you need to travel over
the passes, do so by tonight. For specifics on snow levels, rates,
and amounts, please see the avalanche discussion below.

The best opportunity for W NV spillover will be Monday morning,
ahead of the AM commute. Snow levels will be about 1000 ft above
valley floors. While little to no accumulations are likely, slick
roads and travel delays are a good bet early Monday morning.

Strong wind gusts can be expected today and Monday, with Monday
being the gustiest day. While probabilities for widespread strong
gusts have decreased, due to an increased chance in spillover
Monday morning, wind gusts will remain elevated both days. The
gustiest winds Monday have shifted to S Lyon and Mineral counties,
with gusts over 60 mph possible. Bumpy flights, blowing dust
downwind of desert sinks, and difficult travel for high profile
vehicles is likely.

Sierra snow showers die down overnight Monday into Tuesday but
pick back up Tuesday afternoon. Snowfall totals won`t be nearly as
high with this second system, with up to 12 inches of snow along
the Sierra crest. Afternoon wind gusts will be elevated, but not
nearly as windy as today and Monday. Light snow showers in the
Sierra stick around Wednesday through Thursday but beyond that,
the upper level pattern suggests drying conditions as ridging
starts to build to our north. -Giralte

&&

.AVIATION...

Our incoming storm today brings periods of gusty winds, rain, and
mountain snow this morning through Tuesday. Snow showers will be
light today but will lower CIGS/VIS to MVFR or occasional IFR
conditions at KTRK/KTVL. Spillover today will be minimal but can`t
rule out a few light rain showers for Sierra front terminals; brief
MVFR conditions possible. Of greater concern to KRNO/KCXP/KMEV
will be mountain obscuration and increased winds.

Snow intensity increases late tonight through Monday, bringing
LIFR/IFR conditions to KTRK/KTVL with lower CIGS/VIS. Spillover
chances are greater Monday morning for Sierra front terminals,
with MVFR/LIFR conditions possible.

Strong southerly surface winds today and Monday, combined with a
strong westerly jet overhead, will bring prevalent LLWS and
mountain wave turbulence. This will persist for all terminals
through tonight and again Monday.

-Salas/Giralte

&&

.AVALANCHE...

Heavy mountain snow and strong winds expected through Wednesday
for the Sierra as two storm systems impact our area.

* SWE and SLRs: Up to 1.25" of SWE along the highest peaks in the
  Tahoe Basin today, otherwise 0.25-0.5". Locally lower in Mono
  County, with SWE up to 0.5" along the highest peaks. The second
  wave Monday brings 1.5-2.5" SWE for the Tahoe Basin and 1-2"
  for Mono County (highest in northern Mono County). SLRs for both
  waves will range from 9-12:1 with the lowest SLRs late this
  afternoon.

* Snow levels, totals, and rates: Snow levels will start out
  around 5200 ft this morning but rise to near 7000 ft (7300 ft
  Mono) by early afternoon. Snow totals today have up to 12 inches
  for the Tahoe Basin, and locally lower for Mono with less than 8
  inches. Monday will bring up to 2 and a half feet of snow for
  the Tahoe Basin, with 12-24" for northern Mono County and up to
  18 inches near Mammoth Lakes. Hi-res model guidance has trended
  up for SWE/QPF for Monday, which explains the shift towards
  higher snow totals. The heaviest snowfall rates will take place
  Monday between 5am and 5pm with 1-2"/hr expected.

* Ridgetop winds: Winds will remain elevated through this storm
  system, with westerly wind gusts up to 100 mph along ridgetops.

* Lightning: We are in an area of "general thunder" today and
  tomorrow from the Storm Prediction Center. As of now, there is
  a 10-15% chance for lightning today (primarily for the Tahoe
  Basin) with a 10-20% chance Monday.

-Giralte

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT
     Monday NVZ002.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM PDT this
     afternoon NVZ002.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this
     evening NVZ004.

CA...Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT
     Monday CAZ071-072.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM PDT this
     afternoon CAZ072.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM PDT
     Monday CAZ073.

&&

$$